Sahel Shift: Why Military Rule Is Winning Hearts In West Africa …CDD West Africa Report Asserts
Princess-Ekwi Ajide
In a region long defined by its struggle for democratic stability, a quiet but consequential shift is underway, one that is challenging the very foundation of civilian governance in West Africa.
A new study by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) reveals a growing wave of public support for military rule in junta-led states across the Sahel, raising fresh concerns about the future of democracy in the region.
The report, titled “Security, Resource Governance, and Development Trajectories:
A Comparative Assessment of Post-Coup Governance in the Sahel,” examined developments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger between 2018 and 2025.
It found that citizens in these countries are increasingly viewing military governments more favourably than their civilian predecessors.
Presenting the findings in Abuja, CDD Director Dauda Garuba said widespread dissatisfaction with democratic outcomes across Africa is fuelling the shift.
He noted that many citizens feel the “dividends of democracy” have remained out of reach, sparking renewed debates about whether Western-style democratic systems align with African realities.
Senior Fellow Jibrin Ibrahim added that military regimes in the Sahel have strategically reframed democracy as a source of poverty and foreign dependence, while positioning themselves as agents of stability and reform.
According to the study, respondents in the three countries reported perceived improvements in living conditions and security under military leadership.
The juntas were also found to be more proactive in communication, particularly on social media, where they actively promote their achievements.
However, the researchers warn that the growing acceptance of military rule could weaken democratic norms across West Africa, especially if such sentiments begin to take root in neighbouring democracies like Nigeria.
The findings present a stark dilemma: as public trust in democracy falters, the allure of military governance may continue to rise, reshaping the region’s political future in unpredictable ways.
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