Middle East Crisis Exposes Nigeria, Africa’s Dangerous Dependence On Oil – Expert Warns
Africa’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels has once again come under scrutiny as rising tensions in the Middle East threaten global oil supply and expose the vulnerability of developing economies.
An energy policy expert has warned that the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already pushing oil prices upward and could worsen economic pressures across Africa.
In an opinion article, Olamide Martins, Associate Director of Extractives and Environment at Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA), noted that the crisis has already triggered a 10 per cent rise in global oil prices.
He warned that further disruption, particularly the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a 38-kilometre corridor through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, could push prices beyond $100 per barrel.
According to Martins, the situation highlights the fragility of African economies that depend heavily on fossil fuels for energy and revenue.
He explained that oil-importing countries such as Kenya, Ghana and Uganda are likely to face increased pressure on transportation and production costs, while even oil-exporting nations like Nigeria may only experience temporary price gains that do not protect them from global market shocks.
Martins argued that the continent’s reliance on fossil fuels leaves it exposed to geopolitical crises beyond its control, affecting fiscal stability, social programmes and long-term development.
He, however, stressed that the current global tension presents an opportunity for Africa to rethink its energy strategy.
According to him, Africa possesses enormous renewable energy potential, including solar resources in the Sahel, strong coastal winds, and vast hydroelectric capacity in the Congo Basin.
He urged African leaders and the African Union to prioritise initiatives such as the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), which aims to expand clean energy access across the continent.
Martins also emphasised that investing in renewable energy could drive economic diversification, create jobs through emerging industries such as green hydrogen, strengthen domestic industries and boost intra-African trade.
For Nigeria, he said the crisis should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers to rethink the country’s dependence on oil revenues.
He noted that lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, when global oil demand collapsed and Nigerian exports were stranded, already demonstrated the risks of relying heavily on fossil fuels to fund public spending.
According to him, Nigeria must begin to develop long-term financing models that are not tied to volatile oil prices.
Martins, concluded that Africa’s vulnerability to global oil shocks is not inevitable but a policy choice, urging leaders to invest in sustainable industrialisation and clean energy to build economic resilience.
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