Nigeria’s Twin Crises: Democracy and Demography
By Adaobi Obiabunmuo, Ph.D.
In any democracy, counting matters especially people, votes, and jobs. These numbers shape governance, legitimacy, and service delivery.
But Nigeria struggles with all three, leading to deep-seated mistrust in its democratic systems.
Take jobs. In 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adopted a new methodology that drastically cut Nigeria’s unemployment rate from 33.3% to 4.1%. The government hailed it as progress. Labour unions and many Nigerians called it fiction.
The change which now counts part-time and informal work as employment—is technically in line with global standards but fails to reflect everyday reality.
The concern is that such rosier figures may lead to complacency in tackling joblessness.
Then there’s population data. Nigeria hasn’t conducted a proper census since 2006, when it recorded over 140 million people. Today, estimates range from 198 to 220 million, depending on who you ask NPC or the UNFPA.
Attempts at census planning are repeatedly derailed by political interference, lack of transparency, or outright abandonment.
Even a planned digital census in 2023 fizzled out.
By early 2025, the NPC had bought 760,000 tablets stored away in the Central Bank, unused.
Without accurate data, planning for healthcare, education, infrastructure, or even elections becomes a guessing game. It’s not just inefficiency—it’s dangerous for democracy.
Elections reveal another troubling pattern. While Nigeria’s voter register keeps growing, actual voter turnout keeps falling. In 2023, only 25 million people voted out of over 93 million registered.
Despite efforts by INEC and civil society to boost participation, the turnout was a dismal 28.6%.
This has sparked debates on voter apathy, unreliable registers, and whether the system itself discourages trust.
Much like INEC’s BVAS technology, which was meant to revolutionise voting, the NPC’s digital census project became more about procurement than impact. In Nigeria, it seems data collection is often more valuable as a cash cow than as a planning tool.
To fix this, three things must change:
1. Politicians and public institutions must treat data as vital—not optional.
2. Procurement processes must be separated from data management.
3. Data institutions must be given genuine financial and operational independence.
Until then, Nigeria risks continuing to plan blindly—counting on numbers that can’t be trusted.
Dr Adaobi Obiabunmuo is Programmes Manager at PRIMORG (Progressive Impact Organisation for Community Development).
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